evilregis

Here’s a scenario I’ve run into a few times now in my almost 10k hand career in 2NL:

$0.01/$0.02 No Limit Holdem
PokerStars
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by http://weaktight.com/

Stacks:
UTG $3.84
UTG+1 $2.85
Hero $5.14
BTN $2.85
SB $2.94
BB $5.35

Pre-Flop: ($0.03, 6 players) Hero is CO Ac As
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $0.10, Hero raises to $0.30, 1 fold, SB calls $0.29, BB calls $0.28, UTG+1 calls $0.20

Flop: 7s 6c 2d ($1.20, 4 players)
SB checks, BB bets $0.24, 1 fold, Hero raises to $1.50, SB folds, BB goes all-in $5.05, Hero goes all-in $3.34

Turn: 9h ($11.09, 2 players, 2 all-in)

River: 9d ($11.09, 2 players, 2 all-in)

This was maybe my 3rd or 4th hand at this table and maybe my 1st hand against this particular villain (who seemed to just catch the needed cards against me all night). So facing villain’s all-in, I have to ask if he’s got an overpair like I do or if he hit his set.

At 2NL I’ve seen other villains play this hand the exact same way with a wide variety of hands.  Given pre-flop action, I’ve given villain a range of: AKs, AKo, TT+, 66, 77.  Given the pre-flop action, I don’t think he’s calling with ducks.

Pokerstove gives me 79% equity against the range I’ve given him and if my math is correct I’m getting 53% [ 3.34/(3.34+2.94) = 53.18% ] so my call is profitable against the range given.  It is still profitable even if I remove the AKs,AKo out of his range.  This gives me 73% equity in the hand, still above the 53% needed to call.

At the time I felt like he hit his set… but given the pre-flop action I felt like I had to include the overpairs to the board.  Would I call with 6s and 7s vs. a UTG+1 raise and re-raise of 15xbb?  Haven’t decided.  However, given the pre-flop action I felt like I had to consider he was betting the same kind of hand I was.

I am stuck as to whether to trust my gut in this situation — that villain has a set and I should fold or trust in the full range of possible hands he could shove with and play based on that.

Highlight after “Results:” to see how the hand ends.

Results: Villain shows a full house, Sixes full of Nines

Here are the stats and graphs for the first 31 days since I started tracking my playing.  I’ll be posting month’s-end numbers Saturday that show just October’s numbers.

Profit graph

Positional stats

Most profitable hands

Least profitable hands

I intend to use this space to track my progress in the game of poker.  I’ve been playing haphazardly for a few years but have recently decided to take it seriously and really learn the game.

I’ll post PokerTracker 3 graphs, hand histories, bad beats, milestones and other random notes along the way.

I’ve got accounts at PokerStars and Full Tilt.  I am evilregis in both rooms, however most (99%) of my play will be in cash games (currently 2NL 6-max) on PokerStars.  As far as multi-tabling goes, I generally play two tables at a time.  That’s for two reasons:

1. Three+ tables gets a little small on my notebook
2. Playing 6-max means it comes back to me to act more often than if I were playing FR

It’s been one month since I started tracking my play using PokerTracker 3.  Today is day 31.

Here we go.